Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 9.294572 10.946274 12.763234 14.904434 17.352544 20.057858 23.267136
2025-01-12 6.817874 8.948498 11.512752 14.802255 18.883599 23.752617 29.969523
2025-01-19 5.279239 7.596952 10.604460 14.740214 20.218602 27.158667 36.535959
2025-01-26 4.525756 7.036468 10.504593 15.551747 22.597124 31.954350 45.165414
2025-02-02 3.918422 6.531132 10.346598 16.181729 24.703829 36.487111 53.749623
2025-02-09 3.472767 6.164946 10.297680 16.901751 26.935408 41.299055 63.016841
2025-02-16 2.951764 5.578597 9.813998 16.877056 28.022565 44.512904 70.198177
2025-02-23 2.435958 4.903291 9.081211 16.347280 28.243978 46.414022 75.530295
2025-03-02 1.997365 4.280225 8.336598 15.685143 28.150889 47.774360 80.073079
2025-03-09 1.738229 3.940107 8.023791 15.691911 29.106816 50.781803 87.283832
2025-03-16 1.527704 3.655758 7.767595 15.755176 30.138619 53.948603 94.904071
2025-03-23 1.335588 3.373380 7.473487 15.707157 30.954855 56.790843 102.139893
2025-03-30 1.109224 2.979647 6.919192 15.129657 30.813493 58.078223 107.004821
2025-04-06 0.970785 2.757394 6.678106 15.123107 31.701199 61.172271 115.082036
2025-04-13 0.849645 2.551321 6.440200 15.091047 32.528567 64.202232 123.214674
2025-04-20 0.809386 2.539479 6.620838 15.929844 35.080367 70.443765 137.258788
2025-04-27 0.758324 2.489346 6.707699 16.576625 37.300617 76.207720 150.752516
2025-05-04 0.717078 2.457733 6.832051 17.313074 39.748988 82.522279 165.541133
2025-05-11 0.635578 2.295029 6.621997 17.288229 40.644504 85.984024 175.325727
2025-05-18 0.538305 2.062540 6.205571 16.747304 40.418312 87.291578 181.199825
2025-05-25 0.449146 1.831639 5.755488 16.071053 39.836782 87.857499 185.690035
2025-06-01 0.400444 1.719890 5.600523 16.077977 40.723822 91.338779 195.850026
2025-06-08 0.359515 1.624415 5.475335 16.142602 41.738634 95.123685 206.765212